China in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried? (#571)

dd

Introduction:

JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown.

Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings.

Market Updates:

Richemont*:

Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update. Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500. Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording.

AVI:

AVI delivered a strong update, but struggling with I&J. AVI focuses on defending margins, willing to lose volumes for profitability. Potential sale or listing of INJ discussed.

Woolies*:

Mixed trading update. Struggles in Australia, especially with David Jones, while food segment remains strong. Concerns about the performance of the clothing segment.

Clicks:

Mostly a strong update, struggles in UDP (wholesale drug distribution). Selling price inflation averaged 7.5%, higher than the previous period. Clicks achieved highest-ever daily sales in late December.

Economic Updates:

December spending records discussed with BankserveAfrica. Expectations for rate announcements from local and European central banks. Hawkish tone expected from local governor; questions about Jerome Powell's stance. Global Market Highlights:

All-Time Highs:

S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones hit all-time highs. Russell 2000 still 20% off its highs, considered in bear market territory. India's stock market surpasses Hong Kong, becoming the world's fourth-largest share market. China in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried? Simon reflects on recent data and developments in China. Population decrease and aging population noted. Speculation on a potential $278 billion spending spree to support the market. Concerns about state-directed capitalism and common prosperity policies. Recent crackdowns in gaming, education, and potential implications for healthcare. China's focus on national defense and potential impacts on Taiwan. China's shift towards a more inward-looking and self-focused path. Conclusion: Speculation on the impact of China's changes on global growth, commodity prices, and investments. Simon announces plans to start recording the podcast live, with notifications on social media and newsletters. Acknowledgment of the podcast's longevity (571 episodes) and a request for reviews. Closing:

Simon Brown signs off, encourages reviews, and mentions future live recordings.

Reminds listeners to take care of themselves and others.

* Simon holds ungeared positions.