Wayne Gretzky is famous for the ice hockey quote “skate to where the puck is going to be” about anticipating where and when the critical actions have to be taken, rather than just following what is already happening. This metaphor applies even more in business, because the complexities are much higher, the team is usually a lot bigger and the ramifications much larger. In reality though, we often find ourselves following, rather than leading.
We are frequently looking at numbers which are historical indicators, not forward guides to what is coming. The ebb and flow of the day also sucks up all of our time. We are dealing with people issues and these are inspired by something that has already happened and can’t easily be undone or was missed and didn’t happen. Again, we are all historians, poking over the bones of the event to try and create a narrative to explain what has happened, so that we won’t see a repeat of a failure.
The puck location idea here is to get ahead of that daily grind and look forward. We know we should do this, but the amount of actual forward planning we do is often limited to working up the annual plan. Daily changes make that plan irrelevant pretty quickly. As the famous philosopher Iron Mike Tyson said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. We are getting punched in the mouth everyday and are usually bogged down in reaction, rather than spending any high value time in anticipation. Ask yourself this question, “How much time do I spend on a daily basis predicting, rather than reacting?”.
Some numbers can be made available that allow us to track trends and give some insight into where the numbers may finally fall out. The run rate on revenues can tell us whether we are on track to reach an annual goal. The monthly accumulative revenues are one indicator, but run rate can show we are in trouble. It tells us we have to take some action now, to influence the final numbers, rather than crawling to the finish line exhausted and find we have come up short.
Companies who are adding people and growing rapidly are often consumed by absorbing the new people, but give no thought to the future culture construct of the organisation. When I was working at the Shinsei Retail Bank we were rapidly hiring mid-career staff to sell our financial products to the very wealthy. At one point, the new hires became the majority. That instantly meant we had lost control of the culture of the organisation, because there was now no single dominant culture. We had to scramble to create a “One Shinsei” culture, but we hadn’t spent anytime predicting that would happen. Consequently we now had to go into catch up mode. The vision, mission and values of the organisation are the glue. Rapid expansion can unglue the compact between the team and the leadership. Skating to where the puck is means anticipating the outcome of the changes we are currently executing. This sounds simple, but most of our days are spent belting crocodiles with the oar and trying to keep things afloat.
Somewhere in our day we need to be tracking the future. It could be revenues, supply capacity, clients who have missed a payment or whatever. These are rather mechanical. The tricky part if tracking what is happening with the people. For example, the predictive work needed to understand how we can retain our people isn’t being done yet. In a declining population demographic that is suicide. We see companies around us unable to source enough staff, but we never anticipate that is going to be us, in the very near future.
For those anticipating growth, that means thinking now about how many new leaders will be needed and who they might be. Next, how can we prepare them to succeed? Often we put them straight into the leader job with no training. They fail, so we have to replace them. We repeat this process forever. Giving training early is much better than coming up with the solution too late. Once they have burnt their bridges with their team, it is very had to roll that back.
Where is your puck going to be and are you ready?
Action Steps
1. Review what metrics are available to help us with our predictive needs
2. If we are adding people anticipate the possible impact on the organisation’s culture
3. Calculate how many new leaders will be needed, identify the candidates and give the final selection the training they need, before we give them the responsibilities of being the leader
4. Allocate time for predicting, rather than just spending everyday reacting
