In this episode, we dive into the world of geopolitical risk analysis – and in so doing, we also look at Russia and its conflict with Ukraine. On top of this, in looking at geopolitical risk, we are also be default considering decision-making under circumstances of extreme uncertainty and ambiguity. So, this is a conversation that offers numerous useful lessons applicable to all types of decisions.
My guest is Dr. Carlo Gallo. Carlo is the founder and director of Enquirisk, a geopolitical risk consultancy that provides analysis on geopolitics using a number of rigorous methods to help clients make better investment decisions. Carlo is an expert on Russia and the former Soviet Union. He has a doctorate in Russian politics from the London School of Economics and applies his expertise in helping clients address political, integrity and security risks.
This is a fabulous conversation that covers both the methodology behind great political risk analysis and how this relates to decision-making as well as the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Carlo shares insights on Russian society, why the Russian population, for the most part, is supportive of Vladimir Putin, and some considerations for the conflict with Ukraine may end.
Show notes:
Structured Analytic Techniques
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock
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